Capital Market Outlook

Tariff policy has injected downside risks into what was shaping up to be continued favorable growth momentum. While future trade policy changes bear watching, areas of fundamental-driven opportunity may still exist.

April 14, 2025

U.S. equities have navigated a number of previous “once-in-a-century” events triggering doomsday commentary and epic market swoons. However, investors looking toward Europe for refuge amid uncertainty may want to think twice for a number of reasons.

April 7, 2025

Amid slower midcycle U.S. growth, market volatility and policy uncertainty, we see an argument for patience, discipline and portfolio diversification. In municipal bond markets, we believe tax exemptions will remain largely intact.

March 31, 2025

We believe tariffs are part of a larger effort to update trade and financial architecture in the face of a multipolar global economy. That effort is likely to put pressure on the federal budget deficit and require broader equity market performance to maintain the uptrend.

March 24, 2025

History suggests the third year of a bull market may be choppier than earlier phases, but that does not necessarily mean the end of the uptrend. We believe demand-growth fundamentals and inflation trends are more likely to tell the long-term story.

March 17, 2025

We believe it’s implausible that short-term selling by a subset of investors could drive long-term valuations. Internationally, Europe’s rebound could be good news for some U.S. sectors, while economic entanglements make the investment case for China a challenge.

March 10, 2025

We see high-level diversification across regions, sectors and market capitalizations as a key area of focus for investors. Keeping an eye on big-picture trends can help navigate short-term shifts like lower equity risk premium and tariff impacts.

March 3, 2025

Overall market trends remain generally positive, which could be good news both at home and abroad. Relative calm at the index level could be masking increased volatility at the individual stock level, however.

February 24, 2025

We believe China’s economic strategy reflects a global economy that’s more fragmented than integrated. Alongside other recent economic developments, investors have a lot to consider as they survey their options at home and abroad.

February 18, 2025

We believe tariffs are likely to remain a blunt instrument of U.S. diplomacy and remain watchful about what they could mean. Absent further details, however, the economic base case remains continued expansion and risk-asset outperformance.

February 10, 2025

Stubborn inflation trends appear to be keeping further rate cuts on hold. On the brighter side, we see potential for a surge in foreign investment to the U.S. this year — and DeepSeek's innovations could ultimately increase global AI adoption.

February 3, 2025

We believe continued market expansion will depend on more balanced growth both here and abroad, as well as solid fundamentals. Those fundamentals include economic growth, inflation and earnings, as well as the financial health of U.S. consumers.

January 27, 2025