Capital Market Outlook

We believe China’s economic strategy reflects a global economy that’s more fragmented than integrated. Alongside other recent economic developments, investors have a lot to consider as they survey their options at home and abroad.

February 18, 2024

We believe tariffs are likely to remain a blunt instrument of U.S. diplomacy and remain watchful about what they could mean. Absent further details, however, the economic base case remains continued expansion and risk-asset outperformance.

February 10, 2025

Stubborn inflation trends appear to be keeping further rate cuts on hold. On the brighter side, we see potential for a surge in foreign investment to the U.S. this year — and DeepSeek's innovations could ultimately increase global AI adoption.

February 3, 2025

We believe continued market expansion will depend on more balanced growth both here and abroad, as well as solid fundamentals. Those fundamentals include economic growth, inflation and earnings, as well as the financial health of U.S. consumers.

January 27, 2025

The economy is top of mind for investors heading into 2025, but evolving policies may also have an impact. Prominent among them: How the rest of the world responds to U.S. protectionism and the potential effects of sweeping anti-immigration policy.

January 21, 2025

Several sustainable drivers of economic growth support a positive backdrop for 2025, but investors should be prepared to take potential punches from inflation, trade policy, the pace of Artificial Intelligence adoption, and a high federal budget deficit.

January 13, 2025

2025 may be a year of upside surprises, as rising and broadening corporate earnings, a solid U.S. consumer, and the structural shift toward easier monetary and fiscal policies should combine to support economic growth and shape future market returns.

January 6, 2024

Despite a global pandemic, record inflation, and other factors that contributed to the “Roiling ‘20s,” the U.S. economy has proven it’s the most resilient, dynamic in the world, with foreign ownership of U.S. securities hitting a record high.

December 23, 2024

A continued bull market may not be a guarantee in the coming year. Global growth challenges, trade tensions, inflation, a surging federal deficit and U.S. policy uncertainty are among the potential headwinds we could see in 2025.

December 16, 2024

With investors hesitant to deploy excess dry powder amid concerns about changing markets, portfolio construction must reckon with rising geopolitical risks and attendant policy preferences. Meanwhile, U.S. bond markets continue to look solid

December 9, 2024

Corporate profits, artificial intelligence and U.S. consumer confidence stood out in the Q3 earnings season. Heading into 2025, policy changes reinforce our preference for U.S. equities and housing could prove to be a bright spot.

December 2, 2024

Cautious optimism should prevail for peak retail sales season and the macro growth trajectory in 2025. However, defense, China, deficits and money markets will bear watching as the investment landscape evolves in the year ahead.

November 25, 2024